Fracture risk around menopause and how to reduce it
Dr Aditya Aggarwal, MS (Ortho), PMC 45581, Aggarwal Clinic, Patiala
Last reviewed · next review 18 October 2027
Evidence summary for clinicians. For discussion, not a prescription. Grades are a GRADE-style reading of the cited sources unless a guideline grade is quoted.
How big is the risk?
Placebo groups of large trials give a guide to baseline risk.
| Group (placebo arm) | Fracture outcome | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| WHI, women 50-79 with a uterus, about 5.6 years1 | Any fracture | 11.1% |
| New Zealand women aged 50-60, T-score 0 to -2.5, 10 years2 | New vertebral fracture on X-ray | 11.1% |
| FREEDOM, women 60-90 with osteoporosis, 3 years3 | Vertebral / hip | 7.2% / 1.2% |
| HORIZON, mean age 73 with osteoporosis, 3 years4 | Vertebral / hip | 10.9% / 2.5% |
Indian data
Hip fractures in India occur about a decade earlier than in Western women5. One hospital study quoted by IMS India found vertebral fractures in about one in five women aged 40 to 49. This is a single-centre figure and should not be taken as population prevalence5.
OUTSIDE INDIA In 15,570 Europeans aged 50 to 79, about 12% of women had a vertebral deformity on X-ray, range 6% to 21% by centre (EVOS)6. Not Indian data; use as a guide.
NO INDIAN DATA No Indian fracture incidence for perimenopausal women was found.
OUTSIDE INDIA See the WHI any-fracture and New Zealand vertebral-fracture rates in the table above1, 2. Use as a guide.
Evidence grade: Low. No Indian population fracture incidence for perimenopausal women was found.
What raises risk
- A previous fragility fracture. A vertebral fracture raises the risk of another about 5-fold and of other fractures 2- to 3-fold7.
- Low BMD. Each standard deviation fall in BMD roughly doubles fracture risk5.
- Early menopause or premature ovarian insufficiency5.
- Medicines. Glucocorticoids, aromatase inhibitors, enzyme-inducing anti-epileptic drugs and others5, 8.
- Low body weight. Women with lower BMI lose bone faster through the transition9.
What lowers risk: lifestyle
| Measure | Key evidence | Effect | Certainty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance and impact training | LIFTMOR RCT, n=10110 | Spine BMD +2.9% vs -1.2% | Low (BMD only) |
| Any exercise | Cochrane, 43 RCTs11 | Small BMD gains; no fracture reduction shown | Low |
| Calcium | Systematic review12 | No effect in lowest-bias trials | Low |
| Vitamin D (not deficient) | VITAL RCT13 | No fewer fractures (HR 0.98) | Moderate |
Lifestyle still matters. It keeps muscles strong and helps prevent falls. It should not delay a drug when risk is high.
What lowers risk: hormone therapy
| Trial | Outcome | Result | Absolute effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| WHI oestrogen + progestin1, 14 | Hip fracture; all fractures | HR 0.66; 8.6% vs 11.1% (HR 0.76) | 5 fewer hip fractures per 10,000 women per year |
| WHI oestrogen alone15 | Hip; total fractures | HR 0.61; HR 0.70 | 6 fewer hip fractures per 10,000 women per year |
| Cochrane 202516 | Clinical fracture (combined therapy) | RR 0.78 | Moderate certainty |
The same WHI arm showed 8 more breast cancers, 8 more strokes, 8 more pulmonary emboli and 7 more heart events per 10,000 women per year14. Bone benefit is real but small in absolute terms, which is why most guidelines do not use MHT for bone alone in women without symptoms17. See the HRT article.
Evidence grade: Moderate.
What lowers risk: bone drugs
| Drug and trial | Women | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Alendronate, FIT 118 | Low BMD plus vertebral fracture | New vertebral fracture 8.0% vs 15.0%; hip RH 0.49 |
| Alendronate, FIT 219 | Low BMD, no vertebral fracture | Clinical fractures cut 36% only if T-score -2.5 or lower (NNT 15); no benefit above it |
| Zoledronate, HORIZON4 | Osteoporosis, mean age 73 | Vertebral 3.3% vs 10.9%; hip 1.4% vs 2.5% |
| Zoledronate, 18-monthly20 | Osteopenia, 65 and over | Fragility fracture HR 0.63; NNT 15 over 6 years |
| Zoledronate, 2 doses2 | Aged 50-60, T-score 0 to -2.5 | New vertebral fracture RR 0.56 over 10 years |
| Denosumab, FREEDOM3 | Osteoporosis, 60-90 | Vertebral 2.3% vs 7.2%; hip 0.7% vs 1.2% |
The 2025 zoledronate trial is the only fracture trial focused on women aged 50 to 60. Two infusions, five years apart, cut new vertebral fractures. It is one trial, its main outcome was X-ray vertebral fracture, and it has not yet shaped guidelines2.
Stopping denosumab without a follow-on drug raises vertebral fractures to 7.1 per 100 patient-years21.
Evidence grade: High for women with osteoporosis; moderate for osteopenia and the 50-60 group.
Putting it together: a practical order
- Everyone: food calcium, vitamin D repletion, resistance and balance training, no smoking, low alcohol5.
- Symptoms and under 60 or within 10 years of menopause: MHT treats symptoms and protects bone22.
- Fragility fracture, T-score -2.5 or high FRAX: start a bone drug, usually a bisphosphonate5, 8.
- Osteopenia only: decide on FRAX, not T-score alone5, 19.
- Denosumab: always plan the switch before stopping21.
Where the evidence is weak
- No trial with fracture as the primary outcome in perimenopausal women except the single 2025 zoledronate trial2.
- No Indian fracture incidence data for this age group; FRAX India is uncalibrated5.
- OUTSIDE INDIA FRAX was built from 9 population cohorts and checked in 11 more; clinical risk factors plus hip BMD gave a hip-fracture gradient of risk of 4.2 per SD at age 5023. Not Indian data; use as a guide.
- Exercise and calcium reduce bone loss more clearly than they reduce fractures11, 12.
Related evidence pages
Questions
Common questions
- How common are fractures in women aged 50 to 60?
- In a New Zealand trial of women aged 50 to 60, 11.1% of the placebo group had a new vertebral fracture on X-ray over 10 years. In WHI, 11.1% of the placebo group aged 50 to 79 had any fracture over about 5.6 years.
- Does a previous fracture raise the risk of another?
- Yes. A vertebral fracture raises the risk of another vertebral fracture about 5-fold and of other fractures 2- to 3-fold.
- Should a woman with osteopenia alone take a bone drug?
- Usually not on T-score alone. In FIT, alendronate cut clinical fractures only when the T-score was -2.5 or lower. FRAX should guide the decision in osteopenia.
- Does exercise prevent fractures?
- Exercise raises BMD a little. A Cochrane review of 43 trials found small BMD gains but could not show fewer fractures. It still helps muscle strength and falls.
References23 sources, linked to PubMed or DOI
Verified by PMID and DOI. Vancouver style.
- Cauley JA, Robbins J, Chen Z, et al. Effects of estrogen plus progestin on risk of fracture and bone mineral density: the Women's Health Initiative randomized trial. JAMA. 2003. PubMed 14519707 · doi:10.1001/jama.290.13.1729
- Bolland MJ, Nisa Z, Mellar A, et al. Fracture Prevention with Infrequent Zoledronate in Women 50 to 60 Years of Age. N Engl J Med. 2025. PubMed 39813642 · doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2407031
- Cummings SR, San Martin J, McClung MR, et al. Denosumab for prevention of fractures in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. N Engl J Med. 2009. PubMed 19671655 · doi:10.1056/NEJMoa0809493
- Black DM, Delmas PD, Eastell R, et al. Once-yearly zoledronic acid for treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis. N Engl J Med. 2007. PubMed 17476007 · doi:10.1056/NEJMoa067312
- Meeta M, Anuradha M, Ashraf AB, et al. Clinical Practice Guidelines for Menopause: An Executive Summary and Recommendations: Indian Menopause Society 2026. J Midlife Health. 2026. PubMed 41767293 · doi:10.4103/jmh.jmh_302_25
- O'Neill TW, Felsenberg D, Varlow J, et al. The prevalence of vertebral deformity in european men and women: the European Vertebral Osteoporosis Study. J Bone Miner Res. 1996. PubMed 8797123 · doi:10.1002/jbmr.5650110719
- LeBoff MS, Greenspan SL, Insogna KL, et al. The clinician's guide to prevention and treatment of osteoporosis. Osteoporos Int. 2022. PubMed 35478046 · doi:10.1007/s00198-021-05900-y
- Gregson CL, Armstrong DJ, Avgerinou C, et al. The 2024 UK clinical guideline for the prevention and treatment of osteoporosis. Arch Osteoporos. 2025. PubMed 40921943 · doi:10.1007/s11657-025-01588-3
- Greendale GA, Sowers M, Han W, et al. Bone mineral density loss in relation to the final menstrual period in a multiethnic cohort: results from the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN). J Bone Miner Res. 2012. PubMed 21976317 · doi:10.1002/jbmr.534
- Watson SL, Weeks BK, Weis LJ, et al. High-Intensity Resistance and Impact Training Improves Bone Mineral Density and Physical Function in Postmenopausal Women With Osteopenia and Osteoporosis: The LIFTMOR Randomized Controlled Trial. J Bone Miner Res. 2018. PubMed 28975661 · doi:10.1002/jbmr.3284
- Howe TE, Shea B, Dawson LJ, et al. Exercise for preventing and treating osteoporosis in postmenopausal women. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2011. PubMed 21735380 · doi:10.1002/14651858.CD000333.pub2
- Bolland MJ, Leung W, Tai V, et al. Calcium intake and risk of fracture: systematic review. BMJ. 2015. PubMed 26420387 · doi:10.1136/bmj.h4580
- LeBoff MS, Chou SH, Ratliff KA, et al. Supplemental Vitamin D and Incident Fractures in Midlife and Older Adults. N Engl J Med. 2022. PubMed 35939577 · doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2202106
- Rossouw JE, Anderson GL, Prentice RL, et al. Risks and benefits of estrogen plus progestin in healthy postmenopausal women: principal results From the Women's Health Initiative randomized controlled trial. JAMA. 2002. PubMed 12117397 · doi:10.1001/jama.288.3.321
- Anderson GL, Limacher M, Assaf AR, et al. Effects of conjugated equine estrogen in postmenopausal women with hysterectomy: the Women's Health Initiative randomized controlled trial. JAMA. 2004. PubMed 15082697 · doi:10.1001/jama.291.14.1701
- Bofill Rodriguez M, Yong LN, Mirkov S, et al. Long-term hormone therapy for perimenopausal and postmenopausal women. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2025. PubMed 41307293 · doi:10.1002/14651858.CD004143.pub6
- US Preventive Services Task Force, Mangione CM, Barry MJ, et al. Hormone Therapy for the Primary Prevention of Chronic Conditions in Postmenopausal Persons: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement. JAMA. 2022. PubMed 36318127 · doi:10.1001/jama.2022.18625
- Black DM, Cummings SR, Karpf DB, et al. Randomised trial of effect of alendronate on risk of fracture in women with existing vertebral fractures. Fracture Intervention Trial Research Group. Lancet. 1996. PubMed 8950879 · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(96)07088-2
- Cummings SR, Black DM, Thompson DE, et al. Effect of alendronate on risk of fracture in women with low bone density but without vertebral fractures: results from the Fracture Intervention Trial. JAMA. 1998. PubMed 9875874 · doi:10.1001/jama.280.24.2077
- Reid IR, Horne AM, Mihov B, et al. Fracture Prevention with Zoledronate in Older Women with Osteopenia. N Engl J Med. 2018. PubMed 30575489 · doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1808082
- Cummings SR, Ferrari S, Eastell R, et al. Vertebral Fractures After Discontinuation of Denosumab: A Post Hoc Analysis of the Randomized Placebo-Controlled FREEDOM Trial and Its Extension. J Bone Miner Res. 2018. PubMed 29105841 · doi:10.1002/jbmr.3337
- “The 2022 Hormone Therapy Position Statement of The North American Menopause Society” Advisory Panel. The 2022 hormone therapy position statement of The North American Menopause Society. Menopause. 2022. PubMed 35797481 · doi:10.1097/GME.0000000000002028
- Kanis JA, Oden A, Johnell O, et al. The use of clinical risk factors enhances the performance of BMD in the prediction of hip and osteoporotic fractures in men and women. Osteoporos Int. 2007. PubMed 17323110 · doi:10.1007/s00198-007-0343-y
This article is for healthcare professionals. It is not medical advice for individual patients and doesn’t replace clinical judgement or a consultation.